Figure 1.-- |
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Casual observers often equate elections with democracy. This of course a mistake. Stalin and Saddam held elections, at lest they went through the formalities. While electiions are only one aspect of democracies, they are a critical aspect of democracies. The Ukrarian Government attempt to rig the November 21, 2004 presidential election to ensure that the pro-Government candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, would win. By the strandards of the former Soviet Union, the margin of victory was modest--a mere 3 percent. The Government formed bus convoys to shuttle supporters to multiple voting booths. Ballot boxes were stuffed. Other ballots were lost or destroyed. Poll workers were attacked. But the Ukraine is not a Stalinist police state. There were international observers. And their were Ukranians with video cameras. Young women seving as poll workers in some instanced faced down Government thugs. International observers reoported multiple instances of flagarant violations. Some prcecints reported higher counts for Yanukovych then there were voters. President Putin who had appeared with Yanukovych congratulated him and stated that he was convinced that the election had been fair. The Ukranian people were outraged. Then one of those magical events in history occurred, the Ukranian people simplly refused to allow their country to be stolen by a corupt oligarchy. The opposition candidate. Viktor Yushchenko, announced that he would not accept the results. Yushchenko with a face hardened by an attempt to kill him by poison soon received support by thousands of his supporters who streamed into downtown Kiev. Night after night in freezing weather the demonstrators made it impossibe for the Ukranian Government to operate, but demonstated peacefully. European and American officials in a rare show of unity expressed their concern about the obvious irregulkarities. The full story is not known yet known. There are reports that Putin dispatched riot control police. There are reports that President Kuchma considered ordering the security forces to disperse the demonstrators, but was concerned about their loyalty. The Government was not without its suporters. The push for democracy has come from the Ukranian speaking west whjichg is agrarian and Catholic. The Russian speaking east is more indusdtrial and largely Orthodox did support Yanukovych, but not in the numbers claimed by the Government. The Ukranian Supreme court in televised hearings heard extensive evidence of irreguloasrities and declared a new vote would have to beld (December 3). It is widely believed that Yushchenko will win the new election. The issues at stake is whether the Ukraine will move toward a democratic Europe or rejoin increasingly authoritarian and economically backward Russia and its sole remaining Slavic client state Belarus.
Casual observers often equate elections with democracy. This of course a mistake. Stalin and Saddam held elections, at lest they went through the formalities. While electiions are only one aspect of democracies, they are a critical aspect of democracies.
President Leonid Kuchma was a former Soviet factory director with ties to the Russian Government. Many Ukranians think he has an essentuially Soviet mindset and has presided over a corupt regime that has resisted needed reforms. He decided not to seek relection, but supported his Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, who became the Government candidate. Yanukovych argued for tighter relations sith Russia. The Government's control of the media was used to support Yanukovych. The Government also used its power and patronage to manage public opinion. Such tacticts proved decisive in Russian elections. Putin and Kuchma hoped that it would work in the Ukraine. Apparently it did not. Concerned about polls, the Government decided to ensure that Yanukovych would win by a massive rigging of ther election.
Viktor Yushchenko was a quiet former central banker and prime minister. He seems a strange choice to lead a massive popular resistance movement. He lacks the charisma one expects. He has, however, learned to be tough. Although it can not be proven, but most Ukranians believe that the Government has tried to poison him. His once handsome face does shiw the ravages ofan attemopted poisoning. Yushchenko arguedduring te election that findamental reforms re bneeded and the Ukranine needs to orient itself toward Europe.
The Putin Russian model of managing public opinion did notwork in the Ukraine largely because of the organization of civic groups. The Government dominted the broacast media, but there was enough free media to get the opposition story out. Internet sites were important. The opposition also had municipal officials to assist. Civic groups conducted voter education and publicized candidate platforms.
Of special importance was the youth group Pora--"It's time". The name came from a 19th century revolutionary poem by Ivan Franko who promoted struggle against foreign occupation. Pora made fun of Khucma and his associates and organized stree parades. On eklectiin day, Pora members laid down on streets to complicate the movement of busses with Government supporters moving among voting district to vote multiple times. Pora in fact was similar to other youth movenents in "breakthrough elections". These have included Slovakia (1998), Serbia--Otpor, Georgia-Kmara (2003). [Diuk, p. A23.]
The Ukrarian Government attempt to rig the November 21, 2004 presidential election to ensure that the pro-Government candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, would win. Election exit polls suggesred a solid Yushchenko victory. Government election results, however, indicated that Yanukovych had won, 49.5 percent to only 46.6 percent for Yushchenko. By the strandards of the former Soviet Union, the margin of victory was modest--a mere 3 percent. The Government formed bus convoys to shuttle supporters to multiple voting booths. Ballot boxes were stuffed. Other ballots were lost or destroyed. Poll workers were attacked. But the Ukraine is not a Stalinist police state. There were international observers. And their were Ukranians with video cameras. Young women seving as poll workers in some instanced faced down Government thugs. International observers reoported multiple instances of flagarant violations. Some prcecints reported higher counts for Yanukovych then there were voters.
President Putin clearly did not see the Ukraine as just an indepedent neigboring state. Putin intervened in te Ukranian elections in a way almost never seen in independent countries. Putin not only made campaign appearances with Yanukovych. (It is interesting that Putin thought his personal support would help Yanukovych.) Putin channeled substantial financial support to the Yanukovych campaign. Russian advisers provided advice to Yanukovych. Russian assistance was probably much more involved, but complete details are not yet available. Immediately after the election in the face of extensive evidence of vote fraud, Putin congratulated Yanukovych and stated that he was convinced that the election had been fair. Putin's reaction seems based on a typical Soviet Cold War outlook. Only Putin no longer has the freedom of action to order Russian tanks to cross the border and restore "order". Putin is obviously no believer in free elections and the necessary free press needed to ensure real elections. His concern, however, is probably more based on Soviet era geopolitics. The Baltics are now part of Europe and Poland is making considerable progress toward both democracy and a vibrant free economy. The other satelite countries are gone. The central Asian "stans" are increasingly moving in their own direction. The Caucauses are roiling in turmoil. Only Belarus has decided to largely accept reintegration in the old Russian Empire. The Ukraine is, however, much larger and more important than Belarus. If the Ukraine succeeds like the Baltics and Poland in orienting its soviety toward the West and the rule of law, Russia and its authoritarian regime would not only be isolated and forced to address questiions as to why the country does not allow its people to participate democratically in their country's government. Putin's reaction to the Ukranian demonstrators has been to blame America, accusing Americans of a "double standard". While on a state visit to India he charged that America wanted adictatorship of international affairs" which is wrapped in a "beautiful package of pseudo-democraic packaging".
The Ukranian people were outraged. Then one of those magical events in history occurred, the Ukranian people simplly refused to allow their country to be stolen by a corupt oligarchy. The opposition candidate. Viktor Yushchenko, announced that he would not accept the results. Yushchenko with a face hardened by an attempt to poison was backed by thousands of his supporters who streamed into downtown Kiev cetering on Independence Square. Night after night in freezing weather the demonstrators made it impossibe for the Ukranian Government to operate. The demonstrations while massive were amazingly peacefull. The world watched mesmerized as the demonstrators, many of then young people, with their orange caps, ribbons, scarves, and other garments maintained their vigil in swirling snow. The Giovernment thought the weather would drive them home. It did not.
European and American officials in a rare show of unity expressed their concern about the obvious irregularities. Secretary of State Powell spoke rather forcibly about the election. President Bush was restrained, obviously believing it important not to damage his relationship with Putin. European representatives attempted to mediate. Differences developed over wether to have a new electiuion or new vote and the timing involved.
The full story is not known yet known. There are reports that Putin dispatched riot control police. There are reports that President Kuchma considered ordering the security forces to disperse the demonstrators, but was concerned about their loyalty.
The Government was not without its suporters. The push for democracy has come from the Ukranian speaking west whjichg is agrarian and Catholic. The Russian speaking east is more indusdtrial and largely Orthodox did support Yanukovych, but not in the numbers claimed by the Government. The industries involved are the rust-belt industries of the foirmer Soviet Union. Most are outdated and unporofitable, unable to pay workers a real living wage. The agarian west ion the otherhand is more prosperous.
The Ukranian Supreme court in televised hearings heard extensive evidence of irregularities. The Court consisted of 21 red-frobed justices. They heard evidence for 5 days. Protestors outside chanted, "No lies! No lies!" and sang Cossack folk songs. (The Cossacks during the Revolution were loyal to the Tsar and fought with the Whites. They were supressed by the Lenin and Stalin.) The Supreme Court found that there were "systematic and massive" violations of Ukranian election laws and declared a new vote would have to beld (December 3). The Court was especially critical of
the Government Election Commission,finding it had permitted multiple voting. the illegal transit of ballot boxes, and ballot box stuffing, The Court also found the Electoral Commission restricted candidate access to thevmedia. A new election was scheduled for December 26. The crowds of orange-clad demostators chanted "Fredon, Fredom" and "Victory". Yushchenko spoke to the demonstrators, "We passed a great test. Thanks to you, we have made the choice: From now on Ukraine is a democrtic country." When he told the crowd that Khucma was meeting with Putin, the crowd responded with "Shame" and "Down with Hhucma!".
It is widely believed that Yushchenko will win the new election.
The issues at stake is whether the Ukraine will move toward a democratic Europe or rejoin increasingly authoritarian and economically backward Russia and its sole remaining Slavic client state Belarus.
Diuk, Nadia. "In Ukraine, Homegrown freedom," The washington Post (December 4, 2004), p. A23.
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