Figure 1.-- Here we see a scene in an unidentified village ouside Shangahai. The photograph is undated but kooks like is was taken in the late-1940s. I think they are selling chessnuts. There were countless villags like this and Japan did not have the manpower to mantain a presence in very many of them.

The Republic of China was created (1912). The Imperial regime after millennia was finally overthrown. The Xinhai Revolution ended the Qing (Manchu) Dynasty. Four decades is a very short period, especially when discussing demographics. We know that the Chinese population grew enormously in the early-19th century reaching 430 million (1850) 【Census】 That was an enormous number at the time. In comparison, the American population at the time was a mere 23 million and the British population only 27 million. There was not another Census for nearly eight decades The population growth was significant, but had slowed, but reached 474 million 1928. 【Census】 It is not clear what had slows the population growth, but the Taiping Rebellion World War I (1914-18), suppression of the warlords (1916-28), the Civil War (1927-49), and the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) which merged into World War II. While the loss of life in some of these conflicts was minor, the Civil War and the Second Sion-Japanese War were major events resulting in the deaths of tens of millions. The Chinese Republic sought to modernize China, especially under the Kuomintang (KMT) which pushed industrialization. And allowed to continue this process might have evolved into what is today's Taiwan, a modern democratic progressive state with European-like demographics. But the shock of the Japanese invasion truncated what progress was being made. The KMT was weakened by not only the barbarity of Japanese invaders, but the famine which beset China after the Japanese seized large areas of China's most productive agricultural land. 【Collingham】 This tarnished the image of the KMT irretrievably, making the Communist victory possible. The demographic impact is difficult to assess. The Republican era was very short, but included the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-45). There is no exact accounting of the Chinese deaths. Some estimates are as high as 200 million, most of which would have been civilians. As in other countries the Japanese occupied, most the deaths were the result of famine he Japanese caused. he Japanese were terrible mangers, similar o he NAZIs in Europe. . In he countries the Japanese occupied during World War II, the GDP normally fell about 50 percent--after less than 4 years (1942-45). Thailand was an exception. The general Japanese policy was to loot what could be seized and carried away with no consideration of the impact on the overall economy. This includedg the fall in production reducing what could be looted as the War progressed. The Japanese occupied large areas of China (1937-38), meaning neatly 8 years. Other areas were never occupied at all. The Ichi-Go offensive brought large areas of central China under Japanese control, albeit for a short time (1944). Thee was little industry to be acquired, but agricultural harvests were important and badly needed bcause food was needed in Japan. he conscription of young men reduced he work force and harvests suffered. Surprisingly between 1928 and 1950, the population incensed to 547 million 【Census】 Despite the almost unimaginable brutality of the Japanese, if the Census data is correct, there was very substantial population growth. And with a massive population, even the loss of tens of millions while horrific in personal terms was not catastrophic in demographic terms.

Qing Population Growth (19h Century

We know that the Chinese population grew enormously in the early-19th century reaching 430 million (1850) 【Census】 That was an enormous number at the time. In comparison, the American population at the time was a mere 23 million and the British population only 27 million. There was not another Census for nearly eight decades The population growth was significant, but had slowed, but reached 474 million 1928. 【Census】 It is not clear what had slows the population growth, but the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) would have been a major factor.

Republicn Era Tumult

The Republic of China was created (1912). The Imperial regime after millennia was finally overthrown. The Xinhai Revolution ended the Qing (Manchu) Dynasty. Four decades is a very short period, especially when discussing demographics. The Republic of China era was a tumultuous four decades -- in fact some of the most tumultuous decades in Chinese history with tremendous dislocations and loss of life. Any one of which what most countries might experience in a century. The period encompassed the Xinhai Revolution (1912), World War I (1914-18), suppression of the warlords (1916-28), the Civil War (1927-49), and the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) which merged into World War II. While the loss of life in some of these conflicts was minor, the Civil War and the Second Sino-Japanese War were major events resulting in the deaths of tens of millions. All of this might be thught to have a huge negaive demographic impact, but the population increadably continued to grow.

Moderization

The Kuomintang (KMT) sought to modernize China. It was a major policy objective. Sun and Chiang were determined to do what the Qing had failed to do. They pushed pushed industrialization to catch up to he Japanese. But the KMT in reality only had the brief Nanjing Decade to make progress. Allowed to continue this process might have evolved into what is today's Asian Tiger Economies. Taiwan is a modern democratic progressive state with European-like demographics. But the shock of the Japanese invasion truncated what progress was being made. Industrialization is particularly important when we speak of demographics. Agriculture which is how the great bulk of humanity made a living until the 20th century mandated large families. Children meant not only low-cost labor for peasant farmers, but a kind of old age insurance. The children (especially the boys) would care for their father in old age. One reason the Chinese prefer boys. The girls after marriage were largely lost to the family. Because of this dynamic and the incredible fertility of the Middle Kingdom as well as other factors like the caloric value of rice, irrigation, and long eras of relative tranquility, you have the Chinese population explosion. Industrialization changed this millennia old family dynamic. Industrialization meant that people moved left the farms and moved into the city. At this point children changed from cheap labor to expensive and often annoying ornaments. 【Zeihan】 This of course did not occur during the short Republic era. It would occur during the Communist era (after the Communists en braced capitalism in the 1970s. But because of Communist totalitarian mismanagement like the One Child Policy, we are now talking about the end of Han ethnicity. 【Zeihan】

Japanese Invasion (1937)

Japan invaded China proper launching the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937). The KMT was weakened by not only the barbarity of Japanese invaders, but the famine which beset China after the Japanese seized large areas of China's most productive agricultural land. 【Collingham】 Chiang attempted to avoid war when the Japanese seized Manchuria (1931). But out right invasion made it impassible to avoid war (1937). The resulting famine tarnished the image of the KMT irretrievably, making the Communist victory possible. The demographic impact is difficult to assess. The Republican era was very short, but included the hugely destructive war with Japan. There is no exact accounting of the Chinese deaths. Some estimates are as high as 20 million, most of which would have been civilians. As amazing as it may seem--even 20 million is not massive in a country of nearly 500 million people--only 4 percent over a 8 year period. There is no evidence that even the Japanese impacted the birth rate. Surprisingly between 1928 and 1950, the population incensed to 547 million 【Census】 Despite the almost unimaginable brutality of the Japanese, if the Census data is correct, there was very substantial population growth. And with a massive population, even the loss of 20 million people while horrific in personal terms was not catastrophic in demographic terms.

Japanese Occupation

As in other countries the Japanese occupied, most of the deaths were the result of famine he Japanese caused. he Japanese were terrible mangers, similar to the NAZI economic management in Europe. In the countries the Japanese occupied during World War II, the GDP normally fell about 50 percent--after less than 4 years (1942-45). Thailand was an exception. The Japanese Coprosperrity Sphere touted by Japanese propaganda could not have been further from the truth. The general Japanese policy lke the NAZIs was old fashioned looting. What could be seized was carried away with no consideration of the impact on the overall economy. This included the fall in production reducing what could be looted as the War progressed. When the Japanese seized harvests, the response in China and other areas seized by Japan was to to reduce plantings. The Japanese occupied large areas of China (1937-38), meaning nearly 8 years. Other areas were never occupied at all. The Japanese Ichi-Go Offensive brought large areas of central China under Japanese control, albeit for a short time (1944). There was little industry to be acquired, but agricultural harvests were important and badly needed because food was in such short supply in Japan. The conscription of young men for the War reduced he work force and agricultural harvests suffered.

Sources

Collingham. Lizzie. The Taste of War: World War II and the Battle for Food (2013).

Census. The 1850 Census was a Qing calcultion, the 1928 Census conducted by the Republic, and the 1950 Census by the Communists. We have no idea at this time as to the accuracy of these various Censuses.

Zeihan, Peter. Multiple internet blogs.

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Created: 2:20 PM 5/26/2024
Last updated: 5:26 PM 1/17/2025